With one week in the books, let's try and take stock of what we saw in Week 1 and focus on how to profit in Week 2.
Several teams looked far better than expected in Week 1, including Notre Dame, Penn State, and USC, but will that lead to some issues covering the spread in Week 2? I'll break down every ranked game on Saturday's Week 2 slate, including why we may be discussing Tennessee football a bit differently following Week 2.
Here are betting notes for every game featuring a ranked team, including a handful of bets and key matchups that will determine the slate.
College Football Week 2 Betting Notes and AnalysisTexas vs. Michigan Betting NotesThis line sat at Texas -3.5 for a majority of the summer and has moved four points off a shaky Michigan offensive performance against Fresno State. The Wolverines may not have an answer at quarterback, but we were never going to find out in Week 1 against Fresno State. A vanilla game script was to be expected and that’s what we got. Can Texas’ rebuilt defensive line handle Michigan’s power ground game? The Longhorns have plenty of talent but also need to replace two of the best defensive linemen in the sport last season in All-American T’Vondre Sweat and first-round pick Byron Murphy. If Michigan can control the line of scrimmage at home, this game is going to be far from the easy outing this is being lined as for Texas. I’m eyeing the under as my preferred bet in this game based on the likelihood that Michigan limits the possessions and lacks explosive plays to score in bunches. But Texas’ new-look passing game will be put to the test as well. Bowling Green vs. Penn State Betting NotesYes, Penn State’s offense looked the part in a convincing win in Morgantown last week, and I’m a buyer long-term in this team, but just remember what Drew Allar and the Nittany Lions offense did last season. In last season’s opener, Allar completed 21-of-29 passes for 325 yards and three touchdowns. Of course, the offense seems to have an identity around first-year OC Andy Kotelnecki, but it’s worth keeping an eye on as we progress through the season. Now, the team is expected to run it up on Bowling Green, who is a contender for the MAC this season and has been able to carry its weight in recent years against Power Four competition. The Falcons beat Georgia Tech outright last year and covered a big-point spread against Michigan. If this climbs to +35, I’m eyeing BGSU. Kansas State vs. Tulane Betting NotesThis will be the first test for Avery Johnson against a veteran Tulane defense on the road, but it’ll also be our first look at redshirt freshman Darian Mensah of the Green Wave, who won the starting quarterback job, against FBS competition. Last season, Kansas State throttled now-Tulane coach John Sumrall’s Troy team 42-13, can the Wildcats shut down his new team yet again? The under is my preference in this one as I still need to see Johnson show he can engineer a competent passing attack. The highly touted prospect passed the ball 19 times in the team’s tune-up against UT-Martin for 147 yards. Georgia Tech vs. Syracuse Betting NotesSyracuse’s transfer portal-laden roster had some ups and downs in its opener. While the offense kicked it into gear and quarterback Kyle McCord finished with 354 yards and four touchdowns, the defense allowed seven yards per carry to a rebuilding Ohio team. If the Orange can’t stop the run game, this can be a high-scoring affair on Saturday against a Georgia Tech team that finished last season 31st in EPA/Play and returns nearly all of its key contributors, including dual-threat quarterback Haynes King. Now that Florida State is heading towards a lost season, how much of an upgrade does Georgia Tech deserve, as the team heads to Western New York as three-point favorites? Northern Illinois vs. Notre Dame Betting NotesNotre Dame scored an impressive win at Texas A&M as underdogs but now comes a typical letdown spotThe Irish return home to face Northern Illinois ahead of a road trip to Purdue for a (small) rivalry matchup. Will the team show anything, or just focus on getting healthy after a taxing affair in College Station and get out with a win? At over four touchdowns, I’ll bank on Northern Illinois, which returns 16 total starters, to make this scoreline respectable with Notre Dame likely more interested in getting out of this game with a win. Baylor vs. Utah Betting NotesThis is a great data point to see how Utah stacks up in the Big 12 (this game doesn’t count as a conference game due to prior scheduling). Mainly, I want to see Cam Rising perform against real competition. After missing all of last season due to knee surgery, Rising returned to the field against Southern Utah, completing 10-of-15 passes for five touchdowns. However, what will happen when a team puts pressure on him? Rising has been a player who is dangerous with designed runs and working off script. In 2022, he had only 13 big-time throws to 13 turnover-worthy plays, per Pro Football Focus, but had 70 rush attempts and seven yards a carry. What will happen if Rising’s knee stops him from being the player he used to be?Iowa State vs. Iowa Betting NotesThe big question around this game is if Iowa actually is a semi-competent offense now. The team scored 40 points against Illinois State in Week 1 but now faces a legitimate Big 12 contending defense in Iowa State.However, there are plenty of questions for the Cyclones heading into the Cy-Hawk Game, including injuries to a handful of linebackers and stud running back Abu Sama left the North Dakota game with an injury. Iowa has routinely had a top-flight defense, and shut down Rocco Becht and the Cyclones offense in Ames last season, holding the then-freshman to 203 yards and generating a pick-six on 44 pass attempts. Iowa State averaged 14 points against the four opponents that ranked top 50 in yards per play last season. If Iowa’s offense can get out of the basement of the national rankings, the team may be the clear side on Saturday. Jacksonville State vs. Louisville Betting NotesLouisville continues to be an explosive play factory, disposing of Austin Peay 62-0. Jacksonville State’s defensive coordinator Zach Alley taking the same job at Oklahoma was a concerning sign for the team heading into 2024, and it looked like it on Thursday. The Gamecocks lost 55-27 at home to Coastal Carolina. Jacksonville State’s defense looked poor, but the offense didn’t do much better, fumbling the ball four times (losing it once) and the shuffling between Tyler Huff and Logan Smothers at quarterback failed to jumpstart the offense. The Gamecocks' shaky offense and downgraded defense may be in for another tough showing on Saturday against a Louisville offense that showed it can score into the 60s. Middle Tennessee vs. Ole Miss Betting NotesJaxson Dart’s Heisman Trophy campaign is underway, and I believe Lane Kiffin is motivated to pad his QB’s stats in games like this. Dart passed for 418 yards with five touchdowns while completing 81% of his passes in the Rebels 76-0 win over Furman. Middle Tennessee needed a last-minute drive to knock off FCS foe, Tennessee Tech. This could be a long afternoon for the Blue Raiders against a team that is incentivized to run up the score. South Florida vs. Alabama Betting NotesAlabama won 63-0 against South Florida, but I’m still interested to see how this passing game evolves around Jalen Milroe. Freshman Ryan Williams caught two touchdowns from Milroe, but the QB only attempted nine passes. South Florida played at the fastest pace in the country last season and has a dynamic runner at quarterback in Byrum Brown. After facing the Crimson Tide last season, can Brown show some improvements that can generate points after losing 17-3 in 2023? Alabama showcased an aggressive defense, racking up nine tackles for loss in the blowout win, will that continue, or will the young secondary be more tested in an up-tempo affair? I believe the over has value if I were to bet on this game at below 65 given the pace.Buffalo vs. Missouri Betting NotesBuffalo’s offense took some time to gel, but new starting quarterback C.J. Ogbanah put together a strong showing against FCS foe Lafayette. However, Missouri’s ability to put points on the board in bunches with Luther Burden at wide receiver will make this game a blowout. The Bulls allowed Lafayette to put up a 41st-percentile passing game in terms of EPA/Dropback relative to all games last season, per GameonPaper, so this can be a big outing for Burden after just four catches in the first game. I’ll be eyeing his receiving yards props in this one. Kansas vs. Illinois Betting NotesThe Jayhawks won 34-23 while racking up 539 yards to the Fighting Illini’s 341 yards, which started a down year for Illinois. Illinois’ offense should be far improved this season with another year of Luke Altmyer under center and the emergence of Kaden Feagin as the lead running back. Feagin is a gigantic running back who can overwhelm an undersized Kansas defensive line that lacks the size to close up rushing lanes. Feagin's rushing yards is my favorite player prop this weekend. The number hasn't been released yet, but anything in the high 60's or low 70's is a bet for me.The Jayhawks are counting on FCS transfers to fill the void of losing its best pass rusher from a year ago in Austin Booker. It also helps that Illinois' offense seems more improved in the passing game, as well as with the emergence of Pat Byrant and Ole Miss transfer Zakhari Franklin.After losing a top-five pick in Devon Witherspoon and its defensive coordinator Ryan Walters to Purdue, the Fighting Illini defense should be better this season. The key will be keeping Jalon Daniels in the pocket, which is always a tricky task. After a vanilla game script against Lindenwood, we’ll see how Daniels looks after having his 2023 season cut short due to a back injury.Western Michigan vs. Ohio State Betting NotesWestern Michigan led Wisconsin as 24-point underdogs on the road in the fourth quarter before a botched punt return ruined its upset bid. The marginal returns will likely show throughout this game against the Buckeyes, but Ohio State didn’t get going until later on against Akron. While OSU finished up a 52-6 win, the team needed two defensive scores to pour it on late. The Buckeyes posted a national average explosive play rate as the team was methodical in ushering in its new offense under Will Howard.The under may be the best look here given that Ohio State is slow playing its offense, and its defense looks dominant, but a defensive score can throw this game out of whack. Tennessee vs. North Carolina State Betting NotesNico Iamaleava is a true Heisman Trophy contender, and he gets to show it against a respectable defense in North Carolina State on Saturday. The Wolfpack have a fantastic defensive scheme under Tony Gibson, but the 3-3-5 is still looking for a true replacement for now NFL linebacker Peyton Wilson and will be down its starting safety Devon Boykin. Further, NC State likes to keep everything in front of them on defense and rely on its tackling to get timely stops. However, the Tennessee offense is built to put its speed into space and rip off chunk gains from underneath. It’s worth noting Western Carolina had a 10% explosive play rate in Week 1, 70th percentile.The Wolfpack struggled to get ahead of Western Carolina despite the offense kicking it into gear in the fourth quarter. The unit may show up against Tennessee, but I believe the Vols can go over its team total over of 34.5.
Houston vs. Oklahoma Betting NotesOklahoma may have an offensive line issue this season, but it won’t manifest in this game against what seems to be a horrid Houston team. A lowly Temple team was able to get five tackles for loss in OU’s 52-3 win. The reason that the scoreline was so massive was due to six Temple turnovers and 11 tackles for loss for the Sooners. Houston, though, seems to be in for a long season after losing 27-7 to UNLV on its home field. The Cougars' offense allowed eight tackles for loss and averaged less than five yards per play. Against a team with explosive weapons and a big-armed quarterback with Jackson Arnold, this should be a rout for the Sooners.Appalachian State vs. Clemson Betting NotesIt was an ugly effort from Cade Klubnik and the Clemson offense, but I’m not hitting panic just yet on the 2024 Tigers. This matchup against Appalachian State will feature one of the better Group of Five teams, but also a far worse defense than the National Championship favorite Georgia. The Mountaineers had only three tackles for loss last week against East Tennessee State and allowed nearly six yards per carry on the round. This can be a soft landing spot for Clemson at home. Boise State vs. Oregon Betting NotesI’m not looking far too much into Oregon’s 24-14 win against Idaho. The team had a handful of untimely mistakes to mask what was a dominant effort from the group despite starting a walk-on at center. Oregon out-gained Idaho 495 to 232 in the win, despite only tallying 24 points. The team did lack explosive plays, but this is a unit with some injuries on the offensive line that it's working through. Now, the team will face Boise State, who showed little signs of improvement from the team’s poor defensive effort in 2023. Last season, the Broncos allowed more than six yards per play and were outside the top 100 in explosive play rate. This can be the perfect landing spot for the Ducks' offense which is still working to get healthy in the trenches to scheme up open wide receivers that can rip off big gains. Last season, Boise State ranked 127th in tackling, per Pro Football Focus. Oregon is in a good spot to hang a big number after Boise State allowed 45 points to Georgia Southern on the road, not to mention the tricky travel back west. Utah State vs. USC Betting NotesUSC got off to a big start in Week 1, beating LSU in Las Vegas, but now returns home on short rest as a big favorite ahead of a BYE week. Talk about a spot ripe for a letdown performance-wise. The Trojans' defensive line looks vastly improved this season, but the team’s secondary still looked shaky in the team’s win against LSU. While Utah State is a far cry from the Tigers vaunted offense, USC allowed a 0.40 EPA/Dropback, 80th percentile. Keep an eye out for the Aggies out west in the late late-nightnight window catching over four touchdowns with USC in a tricky short rest spot.
