The 2025 edition of the Road to 272 Bets stumbled out of the gates. After suffering heartbreaking losses on the Ravens and Bears to close out the week, I'm sitting at 6-9-1 for -3.53 units after Week 1.
I'm not going to let the bad opening week let me down. It's time to trust the process! We move on to Week 2 and I have my bets locked in for all 16 games.
If you want to listen to the audio version of this week's picks, including some more in-depth analysis, check out the latest episode of Bacon Bets wherever you get your podcasts.
As always, I'll follow the rules I laid out last week. Let's dive into my Week 2 plays.
NFL Week 2 Best Bets for Every GameCommanders vs. Packers Prediction
There might not be another team I was impressed with more in Week 1 than the Green Bay Packers. They cruised past the Detroit Lions, racking up a Net Yards per Play of +1.9, and looked solid in every facet of the game.
Despite the Commanders getting the job done in Week 1 against the Giants, I'm still not sold on this team, and I'm willing to bet on us seeing some regression from them after their unbelievable run in 2024. Their holes on defense will be exploited by a dynamic Packers offense, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Green Bay run away with this game on Thursday Night Football.
Jaguars vs. Bengals Prediction
By the end of the season, these two teams could be looked at as two of the best OVER teams in the NFL. Despite what we saw in Week 1, I'm firmly convinced both teams are all offense and no defense. I loved what I saw from the Jaguars' offense in Week 1. Trevor Lawrence looks healthy, their run game was strong, and Travis Hunter adds an interesting dynamic to their passing game across from Brian Thomas Jr. While their defense kept Bryce Young and the Panthers offense in check, that's not enough for me to bank on them being great on that side of the ball. Joe Burrow and company will be able to attack their secondary in Week 2.
I need to see a lot more from both defenses for me to think either of them is going to be good this season. I'll sit back and root for points in this AFC showdown.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction
I'm buying low on the Miami Dolphins. I know the offseason rumors about a disjointed locker room, and I know that their Week 1 performance was disastrous, but I'm doing my best not to let those sway my opinion of them too far in one direction. The fact of the matter is, their offense is still loaded with talent, and they led all teams in Week 1 in rush EPA. Meanwhile, I was low on the Patriots coming into this season, and Week 1 confirmed my worries about this team. Mike Vrabel isn't going to be an automatic fix for this squad.
The Dolphins might be a penny stock right now, but they're a penny stock I'm still looking to invest in. I think they bounce back in this spot.
49ers vs. Saints Prediction
The injuries for the San Francisco 49ers are far from ideal, and I unfortunately placed this bet before the news about Brock Purdy was released. Still, I'm going to trust this San Francisco team to get the job done against a Saints team that I'm still convinced is the worst in the league. Spencer Rattler ranked 26th amongst all quarterbacks in Week 1 in EPA+CPOE composite, which is exactly what we expected from him.
No matter who is playing at quarterback or tight end for San Francisco, the team is deep enough and coached well enough that I still expect them to cruise past the Saints in New Orleans.
Browns vs. Ravens Prediction
Despite losing heartbreakingly on Sunday night, I'm still of the firm belief that the Baltimore Ravens are the best and most complete team in the NFL, and I fully expect them to steamroll the Cleveland Browns this week. The Ravens had the second-best Net Yards per Play mark in Week 1 at +2.2, despite playing a Super Bowl contender. Don't be fooled by the Browns hanging in with a Bengals team that looked unprepared on Sunday. Baltimore is far and away the better team in this won and should have no issue winning by 12+ points.
Giants vs. Cowboys Prediction
I'm going to bet against the New York Giants as long as they start Russell Wilson at quarterback, which I expect to be only a few more weeks. He finished dead last amongst all quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE (Expected Points Added + Completion Percentage Over Expected). He looked old and uncomfortable behind the Giants' offensive line, and now he has to take on a Cowboys team that looked much better than expected against the defending champions.
Despite facing the Eagles, the Cowboys' offense ranked 13th in EPA per play. I had concerns about Dak Prescott heading into this season, but if Week 1 was any indication, the Cowboys are going to be competitive this season. I think they show they're in a class above the Giants in Week 2.
Bears vs. Lions Prediction
The Chicago Bears look extremely similar to last year's version of the team, despite Ben Johnson being in at head coach. Caleb Williams missed many throws late in the game and may not have taken the step forward people were hoping for.
Meanwhile, the Lions may have gotten off to a bad start but a Week 1 matchup at Lambeau Field was a nightmare situation for them. I think they're the far better team in this matchup and will feel comfortable returning to Detroit for their home opener. They'll win this one in impressive fashion.
Bills vs. Jets Prediction
I'm cautiously optimistic, and maybe I'm overreacting to Week 1, but the Jets' offense looked great. They finished fourth amongst all teams in EPA per play and fourth in success rate. Tanner Engstrand's offense was built well to make the most of Justin Fields. They used their weapons to the best of their ability, and we'll see if they can keep that going against the Bills in Week 2.
While I'd consider taking the points with the Jets, I have no interest in betting against the Bills' offense in any fashion. Buffalo torched a Baltimore defense that I expect to be one of the best in the NFL this season. Josh Allen looks as good as ever while the Bills' defense continues to struggle.
I think the point or two is too low in this game.
Seahawks vs. Steelers Prediction
I had a theory heading into this season that Aaron Rodgers would look far better than he did with the Jets last year. His best starts were in his last six games in 2024, which tells me he may not have been completely over his injury in the first half of the season. He was one of the most effective quarterbacks in Week 1, and now he and the Steelers get to host a Seahawks team that I wasn't impressed with.
Sam Darnold looked a lot closer to the Sam Darnold of old on Sunday, and the Seahawks couldn't get much going on the ground. I think this team is worse than the public opinion of them at the moment, so I'm going to fade them in this spot against Pittsburgh.
Rams vs. Titans Prediction
In a game between a team I'm selling high on and a team I'm buying low on, obviously, I'm going back with the team I'm buying low on, so I'll take the points with the Tennessee Titans. The Titans' offense looked horrific in Week 1, but I can look past it, considering Cam Ward's first start couldn't have been in a worse situation, on the road against arguably the best defense in the NFL. What you might be surprised to find out is that the Rams' offense was also not good, ranking 24th in EPA.
The Titans' defense was solid, ranking fifth in opponent EPA per play and sixth in opponent success rate. They have the tools to attack an underperforming Stafford, and I think that'll be enough to keep this game within six points.
Broncos vs. Colts Prediction
The Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts finished Week 1 ranking first and second in opponent EPA per play. We know the Broncos' defense is going to be one of the best in the NFL this season, and while the Colts may not be top 5, they look like the makings of a top 10 defense.
The Broncos' offense is going to have Daniel Jones in a blender. I'm not falling for the post-Week 1 propaganda that he's back to being a solid NFL quarterback. Meanwhile, Bo Nix and the Broncos' offense looked less than impressive at home against the Titans.
This game has all the makings of an UNDER.
Panthers vs. Cardinals Prediction
The Panthers aren't as good as people thought they'd be heading into this season, but I don't think they're as bad as they looked in Week 1. The Cardinals aren't nearly good enough to be deserving of being 6.5-point favorites in this game. They barely scraped by the worst team in the league in Week 1 and certainly didn't look impressive in the process.
Bryce Young will have to look better in this game, but he and the Panthers' offense can do enough to keep this game close.
Eagles vs. Chiefs Prediction
I might be acting as an armchair psychologist here, but the Kansas City Chiefs looked tired in their opening game in Week 1. Making it to the Super Bowl multiple years in a row has to eventually weigh on a team, shortening their offseason every year. What's even worse is that they didn't look like they fixed the issues they had last season. Their offense looks meek, and they have little run game to speak of.
Meanwhile, the Eagles look every bit the team that cruised past the Chiefs in Super Bowl 59. As long as Jalen Carter doesn't get kicked out before the first ball is snapped, I think the Eagles get the job done in this Super Bowl rematch.
Falcons vs. Vikings Prediction
Typically, I wait until Monday Night Football happens before I place a bet on teams playing in that game, but I had to rush to bet the Falcons at +187 in this spot. Atlanta fell short to the Buccaneers, but Michael Penix Jr. looked every bit of a great NFL quarterback, and their defense looked much improved under Jeff Ulbrich.
Making J.J. McCarthy this big of a favorite in his second-ever NFL start seems like a stretch. Atlanta has the weapons to not only cover the spread against Minnesota but also win this game outright. The Falcons are my upset pick of the week.
Buccaneers vs. Texans Prediction
I'm doing my best not to overreact to Week 1 in this game. There's no getting past how bad the Texans' offense looked, but I have faith they can bounce back in this spot. More importantly, their defense can win them this game. They had one of the best secondaries in the NFL last season, and they did a great job slowing down Matthew Stafford in Week 1, but didn't get the help they needed from their offense. They should be able to do a similar job against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who will still be without Tristan Wirfs and Chris Godwin.
Don't underestimate Will Anderson Jr. and the Texans' pass-rush taking advantage of the banged-up Buccaneers' offensive line and putting pressure on Baker Mayfield.
Chargers vs. Raiders Prediction
I'm selling high on the Chargers. Yes, they looked extremely impressive against the Kansas City Chiefs, but I still have some questions about their ability to consistently win by margin this NFL season. Their defense ranked just 23rd in opponent EPA per Play in Week 1, and overall, the Chargers had a Net Yards per Play of +0.4.
Geno Smith continues to be the model of consistency. His ceiling may not be high, but his floor sure is. He may not help the Raiders win enough games to make the playoffs, but he can cover a ton of spreads as an underdog. They have some talent on offense, along with an underrated defense.
Don't be surprised if the Raiders hang around in this game on Monday night.
